Some signs of the water impacts from global warming are already occurring today in the U.S. and around the world (as you can see in this great photo collection). For example (a brief overview is available in the IPCC summary on page 27):

Deserts are spreading, fueling armed conflict and putting families on the move in places like Sudan, Kenya, and Somalia. Concern about armed conflicts from global warming has led to the creation within the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency of the Center on Climate Change and National Security, to assess the national security risks posed to the United States by widening desertification; rising sea levels; population shifts and increasing competition for food, land, and fresh water.

The Oceans are acidifying (as NRDC has summarized). Over the last 250 years, oceans have absorbed 530 billion tons of CO2, triggering a 30 percent increase in ocean acidity. Researchers predict that if carbon emissions continue at their current rate, ocean acidity will more than double by 2100.  Acidification threatens the future of ocean protein sources which is a major concern since the oceans currently provide around 17 percent of the protein that humans consume — and as the world is struggling to feed the current population any disruption is very problematic.

Sea level is rising. Higher temperatures are expected to further raise sea level by expanding ocean water, melting mountain glaciers and small ice caps, and causing portions of Greenland and the Antarctic ice sheets to melt. The IPCC estimates that the global average sea level will rise between 0.6 and 2 feet in the next century (as discussed in this post). This would cause: huge populations to be at risk as a lot of the world’s population lives on or near coasts, land loss, increased vulnerability of coastal areas to flooding during storms, disrupting water supply through “saltwater intrusion,” etc. (as this U.S. government site highlights and as you can see in this photo collection).

Water everywhere but not always when it is needed, in quantities that can be used, and in places that need it. Heavy precipitation events are more likely as a result of global warming which can cause severe flooding. Snow cover area is projected to contract as are a number of glaciers (as you can see in this photo collection) around the world which is a major concern as many population centers of the world depend on melting snow and glaciers for their freshwater, supply of water for agriculture, and electricity from hydropower (e.g., billions of people in Asia depend at least partially on Himalayan meltwater). And as I recently discussed Amazon rainforest is still very susceptible to dieback due to climate change.

Agriculture production? Water is critical for agriculture production, so any change in the pattern of rainfall (e.g., later wet seasons, heavier rainfall, droughts, etc.) can have a significant impact on ability of the world (and key countries) to feed humans. Global warming’s impact on agriculture varies by region but could have serious impacts in a number of regions (as the IPCC highlights), including in the U.S. (where the predicted damage is estimated to be $950 billion by 2100).

So if any of these potential impacts on water resources from global warming are of concern to you, then Water Day (or any day for that matter) is a good day to take some key steps to help avoid these stresses on water, including:

* Tell Congress to increase funding for global clean water;
* Tell your senators to reject a dangerous attempt to weaken the Clean Air Act;
* Tell your senators to pass a strong climate and energy bill now; and
* Help us keep track of the actions that countries are taking as a part of the Copenhagen Accord.

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Of course, plants and animals have been adapting to changes in their environment for thousands of years, through both evolution and migration.  However the newly released models show that many species in as many as one-third of the habitats studied will be unable to keep up with the projected rates of change. An even more serious issue, and one that cannot be ascribed to natural forces, is the fragmentation of so many natural habitats by human activity. Many animals and plants seeking cooler areas will be blocked by fences, roads, farms, and other barriers.  The study’s authors note that the provision and expansion of wildlife corridors and reserves  and other assistance to plants and animals may be required to preserve as much of the planet’s biodiversity as possible.

In addition to the required speed of migration and the fragmentation of habitat, an article five years ago in the New Scientist notes that some animals’ gene pools may be adversely affected by climate change, which will further harm their ability to adapt.

In this video, Stanford Professor Chris Field explains how global warming is expected to profoundly affect the small Jasper Ridge reserve in less than a decade, possibly in as  little as five years:

The fight against climate change must include emissions reduction, global warming  mitigation and adaptation. Reduction and mitigation are up to us humans, but adaptation will be necessary for all living things.

As we move on from the Copenhagen talks, citizens and governments will need to embrace preparation and planning for the effects of global warming and accept responsibility to help many creatures–human, plant and animal–adapt to the accelerating changes. In an interview with the San Francisoc Chronicle, the study co-author and biologist Healy Hamilton concludes, “Climate change is going to happen faster than we expected, and our conservation strategies are going to have to adapt.”

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Global Warming

For several years believers and skeptics have argued about the causes of global warming. The problem is complicated because believers warn that man-made causes if left to advance too far may be irreversible. Reduction of the rainforests, continued growth in hydrocarbon industries, increases in livestock, and depletion of the ozone are all considered factors in the debate. Skeptics maintain that the climate change is a natural phenomenon, that man’s effect on nature is largely overrated. The fact is that for several years, the earth’s temperature is rising. The problem remains in deciding what if anything we can do about it.

watch the video:

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This finding follows the development of a new climate mitigation scenario constructed using the same principles that will be adopted by the next IPCC assessment review using concentrations of greenhouse gases and other forcings as a starting point. Modellers have then been able to establish what level of emissions would need to be achieved so as to restrict global temperature rise.

This research, revealed at ‘ENSEMBLES – A changing climate in Europe’ symposium at the Met Office in Exeter, is the culmination of five years of research from 66 institutes across Europe, led by the Met Office Hadley Centre and funded by the European Commission.

John Mitchell, Director of Climate Science at the Met Office and ENSEMBLES co-ordinator, said: “This latest research emphasises the necessity to make drastic cuts in emissions as quickly and as soon as possible if we are to avoid dangerous climate change and highlights the importance of the negotiations that will take place in Copenhagen in December.”

Dan Norris, Minister for Rural Affairs and Environment, said:  “The revolutionary UK Climate Projections 2009 that we launched last summer, based on Met Office science, showed that not only do we need to tackle the causes of climate change but also that we must deal with the consequences. I’m delighted that the Met Office is hosting this symposium. It reinforces the leadership role that the UK and other member states are playing in international climate science and policy. Just as importantly, it’s a chance to take stock — to discuss the science that has been developed, advances made, and to look at the priorities and the next set of questions we need to address.”

Other findings from the ENSEMBLES research program include:

• An ensemble prediction system giving the first probabilistic climate projections of temperature and rainfall changes fro Europe this century;
• An assessment of the impact of climate change on a range of sectors including agriculture, health, energy, water resources and insurance relevant to decisions being made today;
• A clearer picture of the physical, chemical, biological and human-related feedbacks in the climate system and how to represent them in models that will increase certainty in climate predictions;
• The development of the first high resolution climate observation datasets for Europe that can be used to validate ensemble predictions.
• ENSEMBLES is a five-year research project on climate change and its impacts on Europe that is funded by the European Commission as an EU framework program 6 project.
• The findings of the ENSEMBLES programme are being reported at a symposium hosted at the Met Office in Exeter between 17th and 19th November.
• Led by the Met Office and involving 66 partners, the project is the biggest ever integrated climate change research project. Using the most up-to-date models, ENSEMBLES has made significant advances in producing climate projections and assessing the impacts.

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The map was developed using the latest peer-reviewed science from the Met Office Hadley Centre and other leading impact scientists. The poster highlights some of the impacts that may occur if the global average temperature rises by 4 °C above the pre-industrial climate average.

Ahead of December’s international climate change talks in Copenhagen, the Government is aiming for an agreement that limits climate change as far as possible to 2 °C. Increases of more than two degrees will have huge impacts on the world.

The poster shows that a four degree average rise will not be spread uniformly across the globe. The land will heat up more quickly than the sea, and high latitudes, particularly the Arctic, will have larger temperature increases. The average land temperature will be 5.5 degrees above pre-industrial levels.

The impacts on human activity shown on the map are only a selection of those that may occur, and highlight the severe effects on water availability, agricultural productivity, extreme temperatures and drought, the risk of forest fire and sea-level rise

Agricultural yields are expected to decrease for all major cereal crops in all major regions of production. Half of all Himalayan glaciers will be significantly reduced by 2050, leading to 23% of the population of China being deprived of the vital dry season glacial melt water source.

The Foreign Secretary, David Miliband said: “We cannot cope with a four degree world. This map clearly illustrates the scale of the challenge facing us today — climate change is a truly global problem that needs a global solution and it is a solution we have within our grasp.

“But to tackle the problem of climate change, all of us — foreign ministries, environment ministries, treasuries, departments of defence and all parts of government and societies — must work together to keep global temperatures to two degrees. It is only by doing this that we can minimise the huge security risks presented by a future four degree world.”

Ed Miliband, Energy and Climate Change Secretary said: “This map shows that the stakes couldn’t be any higher at the Copenhagen talks in December. Britain’s scientists have helped to illustrate the catastrophic effects that will result if the world fails to limit the global temperature rise to two degrees. With less than 50 days left before agreement must be reached, the UK’s going all out to persuade the world of the need to raise its ambitions so we get a deal that protects us from a four degree world.”

Vicky Pope, Head of Climate Change Advice at the Met Office, said: “If emissions continue at the current rate the global average temperature are likely to rise by 4 °C by the end of this century or even substantially earlier. The science tells us that this will have severe and widespread impacts in all parts of the world, so we need to take action now to reduce emissions to avoid water and food shortages in the future.”

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